Saturday, September 17, 2011

If I Had a Side Blog (#4)

1. How does the drought in Texas stack up against over one hundred years of history? The Texas state climatologist explains, and it's worth reading. He also explains what he thinks it has to do with global warming.

2. This mormon butterfly was half-female, half-male. What was its spirit?

3. Naming and shaming: The Dr. Oz Show claimed that apple juice it tested contained unsafe levels of arsenic. The FDA says that Oz is wrong, in no uncertain terms.

4. And while we're at it, there's no evidence that antioxidants are good for you. In fact they may even be bad.

5. By the way, did you know that Senator Orrin Hatch helped exempt the supplement industry from the oversight given to other drugs and health products?

6. It was 20 years ago this month:




Continue reading...

Thursday, September 15, 2011

The Refutation of Roy?

The week before last, the resignation of the editor-in-chief of Remote Sensing over the publication of a paper by Roy Spencer was the talk of the climate-oriented blogosphere. Last week there was a further development--climatologist Andrew Dessler published a paper critiquing claims made in publications by Spencer and Lindzen (both well known for skepticism of human influence in global warming).

I've been holding off blogging about this in order to let the dust settle somewhat. As I understand them, Spencer and Lindzen both think that changes in clouds can actually drive climate change, as opposed to the prevailing view that clouds are important secondary factors. Also wrapped up in the controversy is how much warming can be expected from a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels, which is referred to by the term 'climate sensitivity.'

Here is a quick re-cap of the mini-controversy as I understand it: Climate sensitivity has been inferred chiefly from paleoclimate sources, and is generally estimated to be around 3 degrees C. Spencer does not accept the paleoclimate estimates; he thinks they are too uncertain. At any rate, everyone would like a way to determine climate sensitivity in the present. Dessler previously published a paper that used satellite data to infer climate sensitivity. Spencer's latest paper argued that there are uncertainties that muddy the waters such that accurate sensitivity cannot be determined. In making his argument, Spencer's paper claimed that there is a discrepancy between satellite data and IPCC models. Although relatively modest in its claims, Spencer and the press talked up the paper as though it implied a low climate sensitivity and represented David slaying Goliath. Dessler's latest paper criticizes Spencer's for using an equation that potentially violates the first law of thermodynamics, and for using observations and models that maximize difference between the two. Other models and observations more closely mirror one another.

Spencer is defending himself on his blog and has levied his own criticisms of Dessler's paper. Unfortunately, Dessler does not have a blog so it's not clear what his take is on Spencer's comments. According to Spencer, the two have exchanged emails and may be coming to a better understanding of one another, though probably still disagreeing. It is clear that the drama will continue.

Actually, what's going on here is not unique to climate science. Every branch of science has its differing schools of thought that struggle for dominance. The difference here is that more of the general public is paying attention and choosing sides, so that what would normally be a nerd-fight that nobody cares about, has become a proxy for ideological and political battle.

If you want to dig in to the claims and counter-claims, it gets technical fast. So at this point I will kick it over to the following links, which help explain what's going on.

RealClimate has a calm reflection on the scene: Resignations, retractions and the process of science

Skeptical Science:

Andrew Dessler's New Paper Debunks Both Roy Spencer And Richard Lindzen

Dessler Demolishes Three Crucial 'Skeptic' Myths

Conspiracy Dog-whistling about GRL and the New Dessler Paper

Barry Bickmore posts:

Roy Spencer Persecuted By Own Data

Roy Spencer Responds With More Shoddy Statistics and Excuses

Roy Spencer's response:

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: My Initial Comments on the New Dessler 2011 Study


Andrew Dessler's video explanation of his paper:




Continue reading...

Friday, September 02, 2011

It's a Shame About Roy

Several weeks ago climatologist Roy Spencer (prominent for his stance that humans are not important contributors to global warming) published a paper that was widely reported, especially in conservative media, as casting large doubt on global warming. One prominent LDS blog heralded it as a "major wrench" in global warming theory, and when I urged caution and suggested that they were overstating its conclusions and importance, I was thanked by being told that I am "a totalitarian." Now the editor of the journal in which it was published, Remote Sensing, has resigned. He concluded that the paper was flawed and should not have been published, and he also protested the way the paper was promoted as supporting conclusions that it did not in fact support. Spencer and his supporters are crying foul, and the drama will continue. Rather than dissect the whole thing, I will simply provide some links for people who want more information.

The Editor explains himself.

This BBC story gives the basics.

BYU geologist Barry Bickmore has a nice summary and roundup of links.

Media Matters has a great explanation of the controversy, along with critique of how the paper was reported by conservative media.


Continue reading...

Monday, August 22, 2011

The Scientific Views of LDS Presidential Candidates

[Update: See also news stories in the Deseret News and The Daily Beast.]

It's been an encouraging week for Mormon fans of science. In response to comments by Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry dismissing evolution as just a theory and global warming as as a fraudulent grasp for research funding, fellow candidate Jon Huntsman tweeted:

To be clear. I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.

Huntsman elaborated on ABC's This Week.
I think there’s a serious problem. The minute that the Republican Party becomes the party – the anti-science party, we have a huge problem. We lose a whole lot of people who would otherwise allow us to win the election in 2012. When we take a position that isn’t willing to embrace evolution, when we take a position that basically runs counter to what 98 of 100 climate scientists have said, what the National Academy of Science – Sciences has said about what is causing climate change and man’s contribution to it, I think we find ourselves on the wrong side of science, and, therefore, in a losing position.

The Republican Party has to remember that we’re drawing from traditions that go back as far as Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, President Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bush. And we’ve got a lot of traditions to draw upon. But I can’t remember a time in our history where we actually were willing to shun science and become a – a party that – that was antithetical to science. I’m not sure that’s good for our future and it’s not a winning formula.

Mitt Romney gave his view on global warming two months ago,
“I don’t speak for the scientific community, of course,’’ Romney said. “But I believe the world’s getting warmer. I can’t prove that, but I believe based on what I read that the world is getting warmer. And number two, I believe that humans contribute to that … so I think it’s important for us to reduce our emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases that may well be significant contributors to the climate change and the global warming that you’re seeing.’’

As for evolution, during the last presidential contest Romney was clear:
“I believe that God designed the universe and created the universe,” Mr. Romney said in an interview this week. “And I believe evolution is most likely the process he used to create the human body.”

He was asked: Is that intelligent design?

“I’m not exactly sure what is meant by intelligent design,” he said. “But I believe God is intelligent and I believe he designed the creation. And I believe he used the process of evolution to create the human body.”


As governors, both Romney and Huntsman opposed the teaching of intelligent design as science in public schools.

The bottom line here is that of the current GOP presidential candidates, only the Mormons have affirmed their acceptance of two hot-button scientific subjects that puts them at odds with virtually all of the other candidates and with many in their political base.

Maybe the elders of Israel will save science from hanging by a thread. ;-)






Continue reading...

Friday, August 19, 2011

The Further Fall of Adam

Last week NPR did a story on the debate occurring among evangelical Christians over whether Adam and Eve were historical figures.

But now some conservative scholars are saying publicly that they can no longer believe the Genesis account. Asked how likely it is that we all descended from Adam and Eve, Dennis Venema, a biologist at Trinity Western University, replies: "That would be against all the genomic evidence that we've assembled over the last 20 years, so not likely at all."

Venema says there is no way we can be traced back to a single couple. He says with the mapping of the human genome, it's clear that modern humans emerged from other primates as a large population — long before the Genesis time frame of a few thousand years ago. And given the genetic variation of people today, he says scientists can't get that population size below 10,000 people at any time in our evolutionary history.

To get down to just two ancestors, Venema says, "You would have to postulate that there's been this absolutely astronomical mutation rate that has produced all these new variants in an incredibly short period of time. Those types of mutation rates are just not possible. It would mutate us out of existence."
The story points out that Venema is a senior fellow at the BioLogos Foundation, which later clarified:
All science can say is that there was never a time when only two people existed on the earth: it is silent on whether or not God began a special relationship with a historical couple at some point in the past.

The Mormon angle on this is very traditional, and yet progressive at the same time. (I previously posted some of my own thoughts in this series of posts.) I've never seen any Church leader question the historical reality of Adam and Eve. Further, with Adam having been equated with Michael the archangel by Joseph Smith, identified as the great patriarch and presiding priesthood holder of the human family in scripture, and singled out in Joseph F. Smith's vision of the spirit world, I think his historicity is safe with us.

But beyond maintaining the credibility of modern prophets, many Mormons see the existence of Adam and Eve as integral to the gospel message, which is something they share with many evangelicals. This has led some commentators to adopt an argument expressed by BYU religion professor Joseph Fielding McConkie.
How literally do we take the story of the Garden of Eden? This we know: Adam was real. He was as real as Christ. For if Adam was not real the Fall was not real; and if the Fall was not real the Atonement was not real; and if the Atonement was not real Jesus the Christ is not and was not necessary....Had there been no Eden there could be no Gethsemane; had there been no Eve there could be no Mary; if we have not inherited death from Adam, we have no claim on everlasting life through Christ [1].

If I can digress for a moment, this strikes me as a big non sequitur. What? If Adam was not real then I don't need the resurrection or forgiveness of sin? Nonsense. Death, sin, and separation from God exist independent of however we explain their origin. Although ostensibly presented as a defense of the Atonement, in my opinion the above argument is more like taking the Atonement hostage in defense of Adam. It's like saying, "Leave Adam alone or the Atonement gets it!"

At this point someone will object and point out that the scriptures speak of the Atonement as overcoming the effects of Adam's fall. And here is where we get to the progressive side of Mormonism. Although individual judgments of where to draw lines may vary, there is clear support from several Church leaders for taking at least some of the story of the Fall with a big grain of salt. In fact in the very same essay by McConkie quoted above, he wrote:
What, then, do we conclude of the Eden story? Was it figurative or literal? We answer by way of comparison. It, like the temple ceremony, combines a rich blend of both. Our temples are real, the priesthood is real, the covenants we enter into are real, and the blessings we are promised by obedience are real; yet the teaching device may be metaphorical. We are as actors on a stage. We role-play and imagine. We do not actually advance from one world to another in the temple, but rather are taught with figurative representations of what can and will be [1].

Speaking of the temple, the endowment used to be specific about this. As then Elder Boyd K. Packer put it,
What is said in the revelations about the Creation, though brief, is repeated in Genesis, in the Book of Mormon, in Moses, in Abraham, and in the endowment. We are told it is figurative insofar as the man and the woman are concerned [2].

Make no mistake. Joseph Fielding McConkie and President Packer see no truth in evolution whatsoever in the history of this world, and in the history of humans in particular. And yet, when it comes to the Garden of Eden things become figurative.

So we are left with a historical Adam and Eve and, paradoxically, an essential but figurative story that we call the Fall. That leaves a lot of room for interpretation and, it would seem, for science.

Before ending, let's look at one more thing from the NPR story.
"Evangelicalism has a tendency to devour its young," says Daniel Harlow, a religion professor at Calvin College, a Christian Reformed school that subscribes to the fall of Adam and Eve as a central part of its faith.

"You get evangelicals who push the envelope, maybe; they get the courage to work in sensitive, difficult areas," Harlow says. "And they get slapped down. They get fired or dismissed or pressured out."

Harlow should know: Calvin College investigated him after he wrote an article questioning the historical Adam. His colleague and fellow theologian, John Schneider, wrote a similar article and was pressured to resign after 25 years at the college.

The article that got Harlow in trouble is "After Adam," and it's an interesting read. Mormons will not agree with all of his arguments, but they may be surprised how often they do agree with him. Particularly interesting are the parallels between the story of the Garden of Eden and other ancient stories. Reading the article provides another example and a reminder of how interestingly Mormonism is positioned on some issues. Schneider's article is "Recent Genetic Science and Christian Theology on Human Origins." I've only skimmed it, but these sentences from the summary should catch your attention.
[Schneider] invites readers to examine [thinkers] for whom the Incarnation and Atonement are the purpose of creation from the beginning. Their understanding differs from the execution of divine “Plan B,” as implied by the Augustinian western version of an unintended “fall” from utopian first conditions.
The Atonement planned from the beginning? Now there's a thought.

Notes:

1. Joseph F. McConkie, "The Mystery of Eden," in The Man Adam.
2. Boyd K. Packer, "The Law and the Light," in The Book of Mormon: Jacob through Words of Mormon, To Learn with Joy.


Continue reading...

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Giving the Ensign Credit Where Credit is Due

A few weeks ago I criticized the Ensign for running a story about the Galápagos that mentioned science, talked about ecology, but did not mention Charles Darwin. Today on LDS.org I noticed an accompanying photo gallery that included this picture and caption:

This sculpture is near the entrance to the Charles Darwin Research Station in Puerto Ayora, Santa Cruz, where much of the Galápagos Islands research takes place, such as how to restore the islands to their natural conditions and raising baby tortoises.

So here we get a mention of his name, as well as a sculpture of his face. I think my original criticism still has some legitimacy, but this picture and caption place it in a new context, and the Church magazines deserve credit. I am happy to give them that credit.


Continue reading...

This is Nice






Continue reading...

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Bastardi Burns


The image to the left has been floating around the Internet for a while and I've wondered when I might have a chance to use it. Well, today is the day.

Weatherman and noted climate contrarian Joe Bastardi (featured in this previous post) was on Fox News last Saturday to talk about why humans are not causing global warming. He made two central claims (I'll get to the so-called NASA study later):

1. CO2-caused warming is contradicted by the first law of thermodynamics.

2. CO2-caused warming is contradicted by Le Chatelier's principle.

Of course the first law of thermodynamics is basically that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only converted to different forms. What does that have to do with anything? It beats me, and Bastardi didn't really explain. The implication seems to be that global warming 'alarmists' think that CO2 magically creates heat, or that the sun isn't involved or something. But that's stupid--and it burns. Light from the sun heats the earth, and CO2 traps some of that heat. More CO2 = more heat trapped. That isn't hard, is it? You may as well say that greenhouses violate thermodynamics.

As for Le Chatelier's principle, Bastardi says that it means that "any system in distress, physical or chemical in the atmosphere, tries to return toward normalcy." My undergraduate chemistry book defines it as follows:

If a stress is applied to a reaction mixture at equilibrium, reaction occurs in the direction that relieves the stress.
That's a chemistry version, but translating it into ordinary circumstances is easy. A simple example is heating water in a pot on the stove. Imagine that you have applied low heat to a pot of water and let it sit for 15 minutes. The water has reached a stable temperature, as heat enters and leaves the water at a certain rate. If you turn up the heat, the temperature of the water and the rate of heat escaping will increase until a new equilibrium is reached. Similarly, if you put a lid on the pot to trap the heat, the temperature will increase until a new equilibrium is reached. That's not too hard, is it? Bastardi seems to be implying that the earth has a temperature that it magically wants to be at. But that's stupid--and yes, it burns. The temperature of the earth as a whole is controlled by physics--specifically by how much energy it gets from the sun and how much is released back into space.

It's not like Bastardi said those things in a spontaneous moment. The show prepared a graphic to reinforce Bastardi's two arguments, which means that they had consulted with Bastardi about what he would say. So based on this and previous experience, may I suggest the following rule of thumb: when Joe Bastardi talks about climate science, expect to hear incorrect information. And here is a question for further thought. If it is true that 69% of people think that scientists falsify their data in support of global warming, why might that be? Could it be because they get a constant stream of misinformation from media outlets they trust?

For a fuller takedown of Bastardi's segment, see here.




Continue reading...

  © Blogger templates The Professional Template by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP