Sunday, August 24, 2014

On the Origin of Hitler

About a month ago I was browsing through Science and noticed a review of a recent book by historian Peter Bowler. (The review requires a subscription, so instead I'll direct interested readers here for a roughly equivalent review.) His book, Darwin Deleted, imagines a world where Darwin did not exist, as a device for illuminating other ideas about evolution. Apparently he argues that if Darwin had not existed, evolution might not have been as contentious of an issue. This is because, while many religious people weren't particularly thrilled with the idea of evolution, it was natural selection as a mechanism that really got their dander up. It was just too materialistic--even for some scientists. In fact, during the early twentieth century natural selection took a back seat until the modern synthesis of the 1940s put it back in the center. As I understand it, Bowler imagines a world where evolution was accepted relatively peacefully, with natural selection being discovered later.

Bowler also argues that the atrocities of World War II would still have occurred without Darwin. This seems completely obvious to me, but a staple of anti-evolution propaganda is to blame Darwin for Hitler. In fact, just last week the Discovery Institute posted a video on YouTube doing just that. At first glance you can see why the argument appears convincing. Darwin said that evolution occurs by survival of the best adapted, so Hitler took Darwin's theory to the logical conclusion by attempting to eliminate the weak.

I can accept that some people just repeat this kind of thing because that's what they heard, but it's harder for me to believe that thinking people take such things seriously. It seems transparently nasty and dumb to me. For one thing, even if Darwin did serve as a source of Hitler's inspiration, that fact wouldn't have any logical consequence for the validity of Darwin's ideas about how nature works. (I bet the German artillery loved Newton's ideas too!) Moreover, we could hardly hold Darwin responsible for the deeds of a future sociopath. But what I find more annoying is that people who say this must ignore or forget known facts and social currents that existed independent of Darwin.

For example, animals were bred for desired traits for centuries and millennia before Darwin. Darwin himself drew on artificial selection--i.e. breeding--for his insight of natural selection. Consider the following quote:

… Experience has long since taught mankind the necessity of observing certain natural laws in the propagation of animals, or the stock will degenerate and finally become extinct. But strange to say, in regard to the human animal, these laws, except in certain particulars, are more or less disregarded in these latter times. The inevitable consequence is, the race is degenerating, new diseases are introduced, while effeminacy and barrenness are on the increase: and worse than all, this evil condition of the body has its effects upon the mind…
That was George Q. Cannon writing in 1857, three years before he was called as an Apostle and a year before Darwin published Origin of Species. You could just as easily say that Hitler was applying widely accepted principles of animal breeding to humans. It simply doesn't take a theory of species formation to decide that your race (however defined) is better than others, or to hate Jews, or to be nationalist, or to think the "weak" are a drain on society, and so on. The Nazis appropriated anything that seemed to lend support to their ideology. If Darwin's theory was one of those, then that's unfortunate but it's hardly Darwin's fault (he died in 1882, for heaven's sake) and means nothing for its validity as science.

One more thing: the idea that species progress was not Darwin's. Darwin understood that natural selection would result in adaptation to environmental circumstances, not the production of some kind of platonic ideal. Thus, to argue that elimination of the weak was necessary for human evolutionary progress would be a bastardization of Darwinian evolution. As I mentioned above, Darwinian evolution was eclipsed for a while by other ideas about evolution, some of which involved progress. (If blame is to be laid, I would bet those ideas had more influence.)

In their zeal to cast aspersions on evolution, anti-evolutionists also often go a step further and say that Darwin himself was a supporter of social Darwinism. To the extent that is true it is unfortunate although, again, it doesn't matter what Darwin thought with respect to the validity of his theory. But although he was a product of his time, Darwin was relatively progressive in some of his views (eloquently opposing slavery, for example) and it seems that detractors have a difficult time making their case without distorting his writings. For example, in The Descent of Man he wrote:
At some future period, not very distant as measured by centuries, the civilised races of man will almost certainly exterminate, and replace, the savage races throughout the world.
Oh, that's terrible! Except when you look at the context you see that the sentence is the first half of a hypothetical he uses to make a point about how extinction erases the gradations between species. And considering Europe's colonial enterprise Darwin's statement probably seemed like an unremarkable prediction [1]. It's rather uncharitable to rip that sentence out of context and present it as though Darwin hoped for the extinction of other races, as the DI video does, but that's the kind of garbage I've come to expect from them.

Social Darwinism and the eugenics movement, to say nothing of the Nazis, were wrong. If we pawn it all off on Darwin, however, then we miss important lessons about the naturalistic fallacy, the naive application of science, human rights, ethics, the golden rule, economics, and so on. When it comes to Hitler, Darwin is a distraction.


Notes:
1. Americans weren't innocent either. Manifest destiny, anyone?



Continue reading...

Sunday, August 03, 2014

Blessed Are the Nerds

My Saturday web surfing alerted me to a small controversy over the role of nerds in American culture. National Review's July cover story was a piece by Charles C. W. Cooke attacking scientist Neil deGrasse Tyson and America's sanctimonious nerds. To the extent that the piece is a reminder that smart people can fall prey to their own biases and that data alone cannot drive decisions, I suppose it is a useful commentary. But I have to say that, to my eye, the whole piece drips of bitterness and projection.

One part insecure hipsterism, one part unwarranted condescension, the two defining characteristics of self-professed nerds are (a) the belief that one can discover all of the secrets of human experience through differential equations and (b) the unlovely tendency to presume themselves to be smarter than everybody else in the world. Prominent examples include MSNBC’s Melissa Harris-Perry, Rachel Maddow, Steve Kornacki, and Chris Hayes; Vox’s Ezra Klein, Dylan Matthews, and Matt Yglesias; the sabermetrician Nate Silver; the economist Paul Krugman; the atheist Richard Dawkins; former vice president Al Gore; celebrity scientist Bill Nye; and, really, anybody who conforms to the Left’s social and moral precepts while wearing glasses and babbling about statistics.
No condescension here! You might also notice that all of the nerds mentioned come from the Left [1]. I guess that makes sense on the article's own terms because Cooke asserts that "First and foremost, then, “nerd” has become a political designation." That the word had been redefined to carry primarily political meaning was news to me, but since I only moderately identified with the term in the first place, I don't have much investment in the definition. Someone should inform high school students, though.

How smug are the nerds?
These are the people who insisted until they were blue in the face that George W. Bush was a “theocrat” eternally hostile toward “evidence,” and that, despite all information to the contrary, Attorney General Ashcroft had covered up the Spirit of Justice statue at the Department of Justice because he was a prude. These are the people who will explain to other human beings without any irony that they are part of the “reality-based community,” and who want you to know how aw-shucks excited they are to look through the new jobs numbers.
I can see how calling yourself "reality-based" might be off-putting. On the other hand, maybe it should be pointed out that the term was coined by a Bush aide (thought to be Karl Rove) as a term of derision.
The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
Given the history, is it any wonder that "reality-based community" has been adopted by nerds as a term of honor?

Cooke's piece has come in for criticism, but I guess you would expect that from those jerk-nerds of the Left. Personally, I liked this bit from Andrew Leonard at Salon:
Cooke argues that leftists are embracing the nerd-designation because it says to the world what they are not: “… which is southern, politically conservative, culturally traditional, religious in some sense, patriotic, driven by principle rather than the pivot tables of Microsoft Excel, and in any way attached to the past.”

Oh NO! Cooke dares attack nerdish chart-love! That really stings. But you know what? It’s not the fault of liberal nerds that Ken Hamm’s Creation Museum, which claims that dinosaurs were wiped out in a flood 4300 years ago, is in the South. And for better or worse, it’s not the fault of liberal nerds that large swathes of Republican politicians in the South have lined up behind the breath-taking rejection of the scientific method that is symbolized by the Creation Museum.
I might also add that those are some gratuitous assertions on Cooke's part.

Cooke ridicules nerd identification as a fad adopted by posers.
“Ignorance,” a popular Tyson meme holds, “is a virus. Once it starts spreading, it can only be cured by reason. For the sake of humanity, we must be that cure.” This rather unspecific message is a call to arms, aimed at those who believe wholeheartedly they are included in the elect “we.” Thus do we see unexceptional liberal-arts students lecturing other people about things they don’t understand themselves and terming the dissenters “flat-earthers.” Thus do we see people who have never in their lives read a single academic paper clinging to the mantle of “science” as might Albert Einstein. Thus do we see residents of Brooklyn who are unable to tell you at what temperature water boils rolling their eyes at Bjørn Lomborg or Roger Pielke Jr. because he disagrees with Harry Reid on climate change.

This is interesting. My wife's education was in the liberal arts, so I guess she isn't allowed to assert the value of childhood vaccination to her stay-at-home-mom peers. But more interesting is that Cooke chose to pit Bjørn Lomborg or Roger Pielke Jr. against Harry Reid. Really? I think what Cooke meant to say was "rolling their eyes at Bjørn Lomborg or Roger Pielke Jr. because he disagrees with many climate scientists and economists, whose work has informed Harry Reid's views." You see, nerds would know that Lomborg and Pielke's reputations have very little to do with what Harry Reid thinks. (As an aside, Cooke seems to have taken Pielke's departure from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight as a personal slight. In searching the web for information about Pielke, I found this note by Cooke lamenting the terrible vitriol of the Left. It's not the Left's fault Cooke apparently crushed on a guy that has gained a reputation for distortion.)

Cooke also calls out progressives for themselves believing some unscientific things:
Progressives not only believe all sorts of unscientific things — that Medicaid, the VA, and Head Start work; that school choice does not; that abortion carries with it few important medical questions; that GM crops make the world worse; that one can attribute every hurricane, wildfire, and heat wave to “climate change”; that it’s feasible that renewable energy will take over from fossil fuels anytime soon — but also do their level best to block investigation into any area that they consider too delicate.
First of all, I thought we were talking about nerds, not progressives in general. Second, just this last week Chris Mooney at that lefty magazine Mother Jones highlighted a video of Neil deGrasse Tyson--the man Cooke chose as his nerd symbol--telling anti-GMO folks to "chill out." Also, nerds would not simplistically attribute every hurricane, wildfire, or heat wave to climate change. Rather, they would bend over backwards to explain that climate change will statistically increase the frequency and severity. Unfortunately such efforts seem to be lost on Cooke and his non-nerds and, for their part, they like to use every snow storm or regional cold snap as an opportunity to remind everyone that Al Gore was wrong [2]. What is it with them and Al Gore?

Look, if conservatives like Cooke are losing out to the nerds, it's mostly their own fault. In the wake of the Great Recession and the election of Barack Obama, the Right has run to the fever swamps, leaving behind (or actively expelling) politicians and commentators who refuse to follow (i.e. "RINOs"). If you've lost the nerds, maybe that should tell you something.


Notes:
1. More or less.

2. I did a quick search to see if Cooke had ever done something like that. He had. Granted he was more nuanced in his commentary than most, but I took an interest in this claim: "The 1990 IPCC Report promised an increase in sea level of around 120 millimeters [or 12 cm] by 2014." A nerd might have a copy of the 1990 IPCC report and bother to look up what it said. Would it surprise you if the only justification I can find for Cooke's statement is an uncharitable reading of a graph? What the report actually says is, "Under the Business-as-Usual scenario, the best estimate is that, for the year 2030, global sea level would be 18cm higher than today. Given the stated range of uncertainty in the contributing factors, the rise could be as little as 8cm or as high as 29cm."



Continue reading...

Friday, August 01, 2014

What Is the Deal with the Ebola Outbreak?

This week I caught some of The Diane Rehm Show on NPR, which had a very interesting discussion about the current Ebola outbreak. (Audio and transcript here; also available as a free podcast on iTunes.) Panelists included Dr. Anthony Fauci and Laurie Garrett.

As a brief side note, Ebola helped launch me onto my career path in microbiology and immunology. During my senior year as an undergraduate I took a virology course that, along with some outside reading, led me to pursue microbiology in graduate school. Ebola was the exotic virus of the day. One of the books I (mostly) read as part of my extra-curricular reading was The Coming Plague by none other than Laurie Garrett. (For some reason I never did read The Hot Zone, though.)

Anyway, I thought that Garrett said some of the most interesting things in the discussion. For example, one surprising feature of the outbreak is that it is exacerbated by the resistance of the very people that need help. Why?

GARRETT
...first of all, these countries have an average adult illiteracy rate of 50 percent. Then you take in what's functional literacy versus the ability to read anything that actually tries to describe what a virus is, you're talking about a very small percentage of these populations.

And for most people, the germ theory of disease is not a real concept....

In the case of Ebola, we're really up against cultural beliefs that when a disease hits a given family, it's because your ancestors committed some sin against some other family and they have leveled evil spirits against you. It's a kind of sense of an endless set of circles of retribution and revenge for deeds committed by someone against someone else. Well, now add to it, they just came out of these heinous civil wars where indeed evil deeds were done on almost every single family by somebody during the course of the 1985 to 2003 outbreak of violence.

And so you have a situation where outsiders are trying to say to people, there's a virus. And this virus causes this disease. And we are outsiders dressed in space suits and we don't look like you and you should believe us. And meanwhile the average person doesn't even have a concept of what a virus is....

FAUCI
This is nothing new. It's not new to HIV, it's not new to Ebola. History is replete with examples of when there are major outbreaks and plagues. The fear, the terror that is stricken into people has people almost intuitively look to someone to blame, someone, some group, some class, some religion, some country. There always needs to be a reason for things. And if you don't understand, as Laurie was saying correctly, the subtleties of the germ theory of infection, then you're looking to blame people and blame nations and blame groups that have nothing to do with it. So you're absolutely correct, it's a very difficult situation.

This next part gets at something I have felt deeply for quite a while, which is the importance of public health to our prosperity and standard of living. I don't think people in first-world countries appreciate what they have, which is why things like the anti-vaccine movement, slashing of budgets for programs that undergird our medical knowledge and capabilities, or cultural forces that disparage or twist science make me angry.

GARRETT
Quick thing is the average per capita spending, according to the World Bank on health care per person in these countries is a high of $18 a year, a low of $7. So there's not a lot of health care delivery available if you're spending $7 per person per year on all health services combined. And as far as the question -- I'm very glad the caller brought this up -- from Ann Arbor. Thank you. Funding and WHO -- WHO is in severe budget crisis. Has been now for almost four years.

They've laid off 20 percent of total personnel of the institution. And their disease response capacity has seen its budget slashed. I know that the average listener imagines that there's this huge SWAT Team of health providers sitting in WHO Headquarters in Geneva. And at the snap of a finger the director general deploys them where needed. This is absolutely untrue. In fact, WHO goes around begging for people like Dr. Fischer to -- at the expense of somebody else, the U.S. government, for example -- to go in under the WHO flag where needed.

And our own CDC has seen our budget cut for international response capacity, pandemic response and surveillance. So actually we're less prepared today then we were perhaps 10 years ago, in terms of the budgetary constraints of the major responders.

For more on the virus and what kinds of conditions the doctors treating infected people labor under, listen to or read the whole thing.



Continue reading...

Sunday, July 06, 2014

The Mayans and the Neanderthals

Last week I was reading a news article about a new study that determined that Tibetans inherited a gene that gives them high-altitude tolerance from ancient Denisovans. Denisovans, you may recall, are an extinct human species known primarily by their DNA, that are genetically closer to Neanderthals than us. That Denisovan DNA made it into modern humans is not anything new, but apparently this particular gene variant went extinct except for among Tibetans and some Chinese.

That's interesting in and of itself. However, at the end of the article I read this:

The discovery is the second case in which modern humans have acquired a trait from archaic humans, notes paleogeneticist Svante Pääbo of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, whose team discovered the Denisovan people. Earlier this year, another team showed that Mayans, in particular, have inherited a gene variant from Neandertals that increases the risk for diabetes.
Wait, what? How did Neanderthal DNA get into Mayans?

A paper published last February reported the results of researchers looking for genetic associations with type 2 diabetes in Mexicans and other Latin Americans. They looked at 9.2 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 3,848 Mexicans with type 2 diabetes, compared with a similar number of non-diabetics. The scientists found a chunk of the genome where a certain variant containing 5 particular mutations was associated with diabetes. When they looked at other populations, they found the following:


I have simplified their table a little bit. It shows the percent of samples that had the most common version of the gene compared with the version associated with diabetes. You can see that it is hardly found anywhere except among east Asians and Mexicans. Further, when they looked at samples with over 95% Native American DNA, they found the mutant version in about half.

So let's summarize what they found so far: A gene variant associated with type 2 diabetes that is commonly found among Native Americans can also be found among east Asians, but only rarely in Europeans and Africans. That makes sense since Native Americans are descended from east Asians. But what does that have to do with Neanderthals?

Well, in looking at the variant the scientists determine that it diverged from the European version about 800,000 years ago. Modern humans didn't even exist back then, and Africans don't have it, so how could these differences have arisen? It turns out that an unpublished Neanderthal genome has a nearly identical match. Thus, it appears that ancient Asians picked up the gene from Neanderthals. It was then carried into America, and for some reason it is now common among Native Americans.

I didn't find any reference to Mayans in the paper (although I didn't look in the supplementary material) so I'm not sure where that came from, but many Mayans probably did have this gene. Lest you think that Native Americans are special in their inheritance of Neanderthal DNA, the authors point out,
...whereas this particular Neanderthal-derived haplotype is common in the Americas, Latin Americans have the same proportion of Neanderthal ancestry genome-wide as other Eurasian populations (2%)
In other words, many of us have about the same amount of Neanderthal DNA [1], just different parts.

Notes:

1. Africans have little to no Neanderthal DNA because their ancestors remained in Africa and never met Neanderthals.

Source: SIGMA Type 2 Diabetes Consortium, Sequence variants in SLC16A11 are a common risk factor for type 2 diabetes in Mexico, Nature. 2014 Feb 6;506(7486):97-101


Continue reading...

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Scientists: Bigfoot Still Missing

University of Oxford scientists have published--in a peer-reviewed journal--results of DNA tests for 'anomalous primates' (i.e. Bigfoot). They put out a call for people to send in hair samples and received 57. Actually, not all of the samples were hair, so after they discarded those and others from which DNA could not be extracted, they were left with 30 samples. They sequenced the mitochondrial DNA of the remaining samples and compared the sequences to those in databases. They found polar bear, horse, raccoon, porcupine, dog, and even one human. None of the results came back as not-quite-human. It wasn't a total waste of time though, because a couple of samples from the Himalayas came back as polar bear, suggesting a hybrid species of bears.

The authors conclude:

While it is important to bear in mind that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence and this survey cannot refute the existence of anomalous primates, neither has it found any evidence in support. Rather than persisting in the view that they have been ‘rejected by science’, advocates in the cryptozoology community have more work to do in order to produce convincing evidence for anomalous primates and now have the means to do so.
I think that's a diplomatic way of saying put up or shut up.

Notes:
Source: Sykes, Proc. R. Soc. B 22 August 2014 vol. 281 no. 1789


Continue reading...

Sunday, June 01, 2014

Watch Your Inner Animal

Back in 2008 I read paleontologist Neil Shubin's book, Your Inner Fish. (Dave at Times and Seasons invited me to do a joint review of it.) Now PBS and Neil Shubin have teamed up to make a three-part documentary. It began airing in April and is now available online in its entirety.

The three parts are Your Inner--Fish, Reptile, and Primate. It is extremely well done, and Neil Shubin conveys an infectious enthusiasm. You really should watch the whole thing. But if you only watch one, then I think the Primate episode is the best.

For me, the most important issue raised by the series is the proper pronunciation of 'opossum.' All my life I have understood the 'o' to be silent, but now I see two experts in the video saying "uh-possum." On the other hand, according to the National Park Service, the 'o' is silent. Is this a regional thing, or what?

By the way, several years ago I put together a series of posts that I titled, What Separates Humans from the Animals? I was interested to see that a couple of the examples used in the documentary are covered in my series.

I don't want to hear any excuses about how you couldn't find the documentary, so here it is again: Your Inner Fish.


Continue reading...

Friday, May 23, 2014

Climate Science Versus the Ether

In my last post I highlighted the release of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) and stated that I would hardly have noticed it if it weren't for some of the reaction to it. It was brought to my attention that Bret Baier on Fox News hosted a panel discussion that included George Will, Charles Krauthammer, and Mara Liasson. Will and Krauthammer spent their portion of the time throwing doubt and contempt on climate science, while Liasson played it mostly down the middle.

To be honest, I found myself thinking that if this is what conservative thought-leaders have to say about climate science, then climate science is in a good place. I say this because I thought Will and Krauthammer's opposition was frankly pathetic. Krauthammer appealed to the weather and short-term variations as an excuse to dismiss climate science as legitimate (he should have consulted the report's FAQ). Then, somewhat self-contradictory, he said he would support reductions in carbon emissions if other countries would sign on. Will's argument was that his house in South Carolina hasn't been hit by a hurricane, and that climate scientists are socially induced to support mainstream climate science.

Jonathan Chait at The New Yorker did a nice job of responding to the panel, pointing out that Will was adopting an argument that applies to all of science. (All Science Is Wrong, Concludes Esteemed Fox News Panel.) I don't want to re-do the work done by Chait, so I will refer you to his column. However, I do want to comment on a few specifics. But before doing so, I want to provide a little historical framework.

A fair-minded public cannot weigh scientific evidence themselves, so they look to experts. However, when there is a dispute among experts, the public naturally has trouble coming to a conclusion. Many special interests have discovered that if they can find even a few experts to take their side, it helps to level the playing field in the public arena. This kind of confusion was perfected by the tobacco industry. As scientists increasingly found that tobacco caused cancer, the tobacco industry decided that the best way to defend themselves from the threat of legislation was to cast doubt on the science. One way that they did so was to appeal to scientists who did not think there was a link between tobacco and cancer. It didn't matter how much those scientists were in the minority; their mere existence served to strengthen the tobacco industry's side of the debate. What the tobacco industry understood was that a loud spokesperson for the extreme minority appears equally legitimate to a spokesperson for the majority in the eyes of the public. We see this same model employed for many issues, whether it be vaccination and autism, evolution vs creationism in public schools, or any other number of fringe controversies involving science. In each case, a few clear thinkers stand against the establishment, like David and Goliath.

It is a matter of historical record that some of the same people who fought on the side of the tobacco industry went on to take up opposition to climate science and were the early pioneering skeptics, presumably because of their ideological opposition to government regulation. So perhaps it is not coincidental that some of the same tactics have been used: always emphasizing the limitations of the science, and elevating the waning number of credentialed skeptics who disagree with the mainstream understanding of the science. Whatever the case, when Dr. So-and-so says that global warming is happening because of humans, but Dr. Other-guy says it is not, what conclusion should the public draw?

This is why, to certain extent, there is a proxy rhetorical battle. The word 'consensus' is often invoked by supporters of mainstream climate science. It is an attempt to put the debate in context for the general public. In response, skeptics of mainstream climate science accuse the mainstream of being unscientific for agreeing TOO much and thinking the science is 'settled.' It is a rhetorical battle over expertise.

With that as background, let's come back to the Fox News panel.

BAIER: So you don't buy that 97 percent of scientists who studied the issue --

WILL: Who measured it? Where did that figure come from? They pluck these things from the ether. I do not. The New Yorker magazine, which is impeccably upset about climate change, recently spoke about the report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as "the last word on climate change." Now, try that phrase, "the last word on microbiology, quantum mechanics, physics, chemistry." Since when does science come to the end? The New Yorker has discovered the end of this. Who else has?
You can see what Will has done here. First he implies that the consensus does not exist because the 97 percent number has been invented out of nothing. Actually, the number comes from a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences where the authors did a literature search in order to quantify the size of the debate in the published literature. The authors reported:
Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
It may be that George Will has difficulty distinguishing science from the ether [1].

Having dismissed the 97 percent number, Will then sought to re-cast the meaning of consensus. Rather than a sign of experts converging on truth, Will asserts that agreement is actually a sign of closed sclerotic minds. Krauthammer joined in:
99 percent of physicists [were] convinced that space and time were fixed until Einstein working in a patent office wrote a paper in which he showed that they are not. I'm not impressed by numbers.
Put aside the fact that the kind of revolution that Einstein started is rare, and that his work did not so much invalidate Newtonian physics as incorporate it into something larger. Do you see the dilemma here? If climate scientists disagree, then we are told that we should await further research. But if scientists come to largely agree, then we are told it is a sign of scientific weakness.

My favorite part was toward the very end, when George Will was obviously caught a little off guard by Mara Liasson.
WILL: ...Again, there is a sociology of science, there is a sociology in all of this, and engaging the politics of this, we have to understand the enormous interests now invested in climate change.

LIASSON: On both sides.

WILL: Sure.

LIASSON: The fossil fuel industry has a big interest and you say environmentalists have an interest.

WILL: It pales in comparison to the money flowing from the federal government.
The transcript doesn't capture it, but in the video Will seemed to stammer a little before squeaking out that "sure." But he's a pro, so he recovered quickly by emphasizing the magnitude of the money from the federal government propping up climate science. Thus, according to Will, mainstream science is a product of a combination of financial dependence on the federal government and factors of socialization. For some reason it never seems to cross the minds of Will and Krauthammer that there just might be a powerful sociology in the conservative disbelief in climate science. In fact, their appearance on Fox News bad-mouthing climate science is itself one contributor to the sociological currents of conservatives. How many people came away from that segment thinking, "Well, if George Will and Charles Krauthammer don't buy it, then I don't either?"

Back to Will, does the interest of the fossil fuel industry pale in comparison to the federal government? A quick search turned up a GAO report showing that in 2012 the federal government spent about $2 billion on climate science, about $4 billion supporting technological research, and about $1 billion in aid to developing countries. $7 billion is a lot of money. For comparison, the NIH budget for 2012 was almost $31 billion. What about the fossil fuel industry? I'm not a business guy, so this kind of stuff isn't really my thing. But maybe this is an indicator: excluding divestments and tax-related sources of profit, Exxon Mobile made $8.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012. I'm not a mathematician, but if the U.S. federal government's total spending on climate-related science in 2012 was about equal to Exxon Mobile's profits in one quarter of the same year, I'm going to go with "George Will is full of hot air" on this one.

Will and Krauthammer's analysis makes for good cable TV. Their arguments have a veneer of truth (science is an imperfect and social activity, and we can't know exactly what the future will bring), and they articulate them with gravitas. This makes their skepticism emotionally appealing and helps the viewer to feel superior to the other side. But when you drill down into their assertions, it turns out that their wells of truth have run dry. Fans of Will and Krauthammer ought to demand better.

Notes:
1. Chait caught someone else trying to knock down the 97 percent claim. My favorite quote is at the end:
[Anthropogenic global warming is] not a topic of serious debate among the climate science field. It’s a topic of serious debate in American politics because one of the two major parties is controlled by a movement that resorts to bizarre, paranoid explanations for facts that complicate its ideological priors.



Continue reading...

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Climate Change: Still Happening

Major life changes (good) have interfered with blogging for about the last six months. Things seem to be settling down, so I'm hopeful that I'll be able to pick up the pace of my occasional commentary here.

So, what's been going on lately? Well, the National Climate Assessment (NCA) was released earlier this month and a regular reader prodded me for some discussion. So I guess that's as good a place to start as any.

The 2014 NCA website is here. However, I think the website is a little difficult to navigate. If you just want to look at PDF copies you can go here.

Why does the NCA exist? Short answer: it's the law. Wikipedia offers the following:

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is conducted under the auspices of the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The GCRA requires a report to the President and the Congress every four years that integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP); analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years
I should also note that the NCA involves many federal agencies and was reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. So although it was released by the White House, it is not a partisan document.

The main messages of the NCA are not anything new. Basically, human activities have released, and continue to release, carbon dioxide and other gasses into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat and have begun to warm the planet. This warming is causing changes in climate, and a variety of changes are expected for the future. In general, these changes are expected to cause problems that will need to be dealt with. However, the poor, elderly, and children will be the most vulnerable.

As I said, this is pretty straightforward and is a reiteration of the scientific message we should all be familiar with by now. As such, there's not a whole lot to say about it. If you care at all about the topic, you should at least give it a perusal. You might even want to start with the frequently asked questions (FAQ), where you are most likely to encounter the talking points found in popular discourse.

Being a little absorbed in my life circumstances, I hardly noticed that the NCA had been released. It was the reaction to the NCA that caught my attention. That's the fun part and I'll come to that in my next post.



Continue reading...

  © Blogger templates The Professional Template by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP