Thursday, August 29, 2013

The Oceans Are Still Part of the Globe

There are a lot of news stories out today about a new study that explains the recent 'pause' in global warming. The background is that the rate of surface temperature warming over the last 10-15 years is lower than in decades previous, which has led some to claim that global warming has stopped or slowed down. The new study says that this can be explained by a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean that has been burying some of the heat, thus masking the true warming.

Adopting the term 'pause' or 'hiatus,' as almost all of the stories do, is a little problematic and may lead to confusion, I think. So a couple of clarifications are in order.

1. While it is true that the short-term rate of warming has been lower than before, there is still a good case to be made that this is statistical noise, due to natural variability, in a long-term trend. If you look at the temperature record, you can find other similar 'pauses' in the middle of clearly upward trends. See the figure below.


2. Typical graphs (like the one above) show surface temperatures. But oceans are part of the globe, too! So slowing of surface temperature warming does not mean that global warming has slowed. If you move a big pot of hot soup from your kitchen counter to your refrigerator, the ambient temperature of your kitchen may fall for a little while. However, putting the soup in the refrigerator does not magically make the heat go away. It will eventually be dissipated back into the kitchen.

When you put this all together, you get something like the following: The new study suggests that global warming continues, but that natural cycles in the Pacific Ocean have pulled some of the heat from the surface, which may be the main reason that surface warming appears to have slowed. This cycle is temporary and the heat may be returned to the surface.

More here and here.



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Monday, August 26, 2013

Why I Still Dislike Intelligent Design

Over at Interpreter, Gregory Smith has written a longish review of several books on the theme of evolution and religion. I haven't read his review in detail, but my skimming (and past experience) suggests that Smith has what I take to be a pretty healthy view on the issue. One of the books reviewed was written by William Dembski who, although I don't hear much about him anymore, was once one of the leading lights of Intelligent Design at the Discovery Institute. Several of the comments below Smith's review are supportive of ID, with one person wondering why LDS scientists don't align with ID more than they do.

It has been a while since I have mentioned ID. Although it hasn't gone away, it is much less of a public issue lately than it used to be. Nevertheless, I thought I would take a moment to review why I do not accept ID (something I first articulated here.) For fun, I have arranged it in a question-answer format.

Q: Isn't Intelligent Design a scientific idea?

A: ID is more of a religious/cultural movement than a scientific one. Defenders of ID complain about ID being lumped together with young-earth creationism and assert that it has secular intellectual merit on its own. However, it is a matter of historical record that the ID brand, so to speak, was formulated as a response to court rulings prohibiting the teaching of creationism in public schools, and as a weapon in an ideological battle against naturalism. The scientific component of ID has always been minor, which is to say that scientific research has not been a focus of ID proponents. ID is mostly polemics, and it was the Discovery Institute that sought to introduce ID into public schools notwithstanding the fact that it had scant support in higher education and among professional scientists. When the background of ID and its proponents are considered, it becomes clear that ID is a religiously/ideologically motivated movement.

Q: Don't some scientists advocate Intelligent Design?

A: There are a few practicing scientists, such as Michael Behe, who openly advocate ID, but most ID proponents tend to be non-scientists (e.g. lawyers, philosophers, mathematicians, etc). Others have an educational background in science, but did not pursue a career in science. For example, as a member of the Unification Church with a Ph.D. in religious studies, Jonathan Wells went on to obtain a Ph.D. in molecular and cell biology with the specific intent of fighting against 'Darwinism,' and has spent his career doing so. Again, ID is not really a scientific movement.

Q: OK, but if we put aside motivations and history, couldn't Intelligent Design have some merit?

A: Sure, any part of this world and life on it might have been designed, but ID arguments for such have been unconvincing. Usually the arguments boil down to simple disbelief that things found in nature could have been produced by nature. Many biological features that appear designed can be understood in the light of normal biological principles, although the exact step-by-step history may forever remain unknown. That is simply not good enough for ID proponents like Michael Behe, who once demanded each mutational step,

And not only a list of mutations, but also a detailed account of the selective pressures that would be operating, the difficulties such changes would cause for the organism, the expected time scale over which the changes would be expected to occur, the likely population sizes available in the relevant ancestral species at each step, other potential ways to solve the problem which might interfere, and much more.
In other words, ID is impossible to falsify. So sure, it could be true on some level, but so could many other unprovable or unfalsifiable propositions.

Q: Well what is the harm in just having another perspective to consider?

A: None, as far as it goes. However, in advancing their arguments, ID proponents seem to chronically either misunderstand or deliberately misrepresent mainstream science. One gets the sense that they must do this in order to make their arguments look strong by comparison. As Nick Matzke recently wrote in a review of Stephen Meyer's latest book,
To anyone familiar with [the science], it is simply laughable and pretty much insulting to see Stephen Meyer proclaim throughout his book that fossils with transitional morphology don’t exist, that the Cambrian body plans look like they originated all-at-once in one big sudden step. These statements don’t respect scientific process, they don’t respect the peer reviewed literature, they don’t respect the intelligence and knowledge of people who actually do know what they are talking about, they don’t respect the hard work of all the scientists that went out in the field and found these fossils, and then spent countless hours preparing them, describing them, inspecting them in microscopic detail, coding them in a morphology database, and analyzing them, all with care and effort and detail never taken by any creationist/IDist writer in any effort of comparative biology. And most importantly, Meyer’s statements don’t respect the data. They don’t follow the evidence wherever it leads, mostly because Meyer is ignoring most of the evidence.
In my experience, Matzke's critique applies more generally to many ID proponents. They not only spread an idea that is scientifically dubious, they damage scientific understanding in the process.

Conclusion:

My basic conclusion is that ID proponents are, to be frank, mostly a bunch of hacks and cranks. The hacks have all the characteristics we see in political hacks: they stick to a central message, they never admit to being wrong about anything substantive, and they distort facts and knowledge to support their talking points. It is therefore entirely appropriate that the main driver of ID is a think tank. The cranks are less evil, just obtuse. They seem simply to enjoy being in an intellectual insurgency, while overestimating their grasp of science. Neither group is interested in genuine scientific and intellectual inquiry. This is not to say that all people who are attracted to ID are hacks and cranks; I have no doubt that many who find ID persuasive are thoughtful and honest people. But this is certainly how I feel about the leaders of ID at the Discovery Institute.

So there you have it.


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Tuesday, August 06, 2013

Science Makes Us Less Dumb

I came across a nice essay in praise of the scientific method. It's actually an excerpt from a new book, You Are Now Less Dumb, by David McRaney. The tone is similar to a friend giving us a good-natured ribbing for how dumb we can be. Here's a snippet.

The people who came before you invented science because your natural way of understanding and explaining what you experience is terrible. When you believe in something, you rarely seek out evidence to the contrary to see how it matches up with your assumptions. That’s the source of urban legends, folklore, superstitions, and all the rest. Skepticism is not your strong suit. In the background, while you crochet and golf and browse cat videos, people using science are fighting against your stupidity. No other human enterprise is fighting as hard, or at least not fighting and winning.

When you have zero evidence, every assumption is basically equal. You prefer to see causes rather than effects, signals in the noise, patterns in the randomness. You prefer easy-to-understand stories, and thus turn everything in life into a narrative so that complicated problems become easy. Scientists work to remove the narrative, to boil it away, leaving behind only the raw facts. Those data sit there naked and exposed so they can be reflected upon and rearranged by each new visitor.
Boyd Petersen told a story of the time Hugh Nibley joked that he had found a mistake in the Book of Mormon. Whereas Alma 42:10 says that "man is carnal, sensual and devilish," Nibley said, "They left out stupid."

Embracing a scientific attitude toward the world and trying to become less dumb is a bitter-sweet quest. The sweet part is being able to learn and hopefully better recognize truth and error. The bitter part is coming to terms with the fact that many people apparently like being dumb, and will resist your efforts to help them be less so.



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Thursday, August 01, 2013

Save the Date: Interpreter Symposium on Science & Mormonism

The Interpreter Foundation (Daniel Peterson and other FARMS cast-offs) is sponsoring a symposium, Science & Mormonism: Cosmos, Earth & Man, November 9 at the Utah Valley Convention Center. It looks like a great line-up, including David Bailey, Steve Peck, and (tentatively) Michael Whiting. Admission is free but seating is limited, so register if you want to attend.

Alas, I will not be there because I don't live near Utah. Events like this sometimes make me wish I did. Let's hope that transcripts will be made available!



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